2026: The Future of Global Trade – Trends and Disruptions

Global trade stands at a crossroads. After years of disruption—from the pandemic and geopolitical fragmentation to policy uncertainty and rapid technological change—the system that once defined globalisation is evolving into something more complex, volatile and opportunity-rich. Businesses, Business Support Organisations (BSOs) and policy makers must adapt to new structural realities to remain competitive and resilient.

Slowing Trade Growth Amid Persistent Uncertainty

Global merchandise trade growth is expected to slow sharply in 2026. World Trade Organisation forecasts suggest growth of just 0.5–0.6%, well below historical averages. Elevated tariffs, geopolitical tensions and shifting demand continue to weigh on trade flows, whilst exporter insolvencies are rising in highly trade-dependent regions such as Asia and Western Europe.

In this environment, success will be driven less by export volume and more by strategic positioning, risk management and resilience.

Geopolitical Fragmentation and Strategic Trade Policy

Geopolitical disruption is now a defining feature of the global trade landscape. Trade policy has become an extension of geopolitical competition rather than a purely economic tool. Ongoing volatility is forcing firms to adopt resilience strategies to manage regulatory unpredictability and political risk.

At the same time, regional power shifts are reshaping trade flows. Emerging markets—particularly in South Asia—are gaining prominence as manufacturing, services and digital trade hubs. While some tariff normalisation may occur, the cumulative impact of trade barriers remains significant, accelerating the adoption of technology to manage complexity.

Technology: A Double-Edged Sword

Technology continues to drive opportunity whilst intensifying competition. Digital trade (from e-commerce to software and services) is among the fastest-growing segments of global commerce. AI adoption is becoming mainstream in supply chains, automating procurement, risk monitoring and decision-making.  However, persistent shortages of critical inputs such as semiconductors remain a major vulnerability, affecting industries from automotive manufacturing to cloud infrastructure.

Sustainability and the Green Trade Imperative

Environmental policy is now a central driver of trade competitiveness. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is fully operational as of January 1st 2026, reshaping market access and cost structures. Green technologies are among the fastest-growing export categories, and regulatory alignment on sustainability has become a clear competitive advantage.

Supply Chain Resilience and Diversification

Recent disruptions have underscored the fragility of global supply chains. While shipping costs have moderated, compliance and risk mitigation costs are rising. Companies are responding by diversifying sourcing, investing in supply chain visibility and building redundancy. Resilience is no longer a defensive measure—it is a strategic differentiator.

Implications for SMEs

Despite greater complexity, global trade is more accessible for SMEs than ever before. Digital tools, regionalisation and new business models are lowering barriers to entry. For SMEs, success in 2026 will be less about scale and more about agility, smart specialisation and positioning.

Regional trade networks are becoming increasingly important as firms diversify away from single-country sourcing. Digital platforms enable direct-to-customer exports, whilst AI and automation help SMEs forecast demand, manage risk and compete more effectively with larger firms. Sustainability compliance, though challenging, is increasingly a condition of market access, and a potential source of differentiation.

The SMEs most likely to succeed will prioritise:

• Regional before global expansion
• Digital platforms to reduce entry barriers
• Early adoption of AI and automation
• Sustainability embedded into operations
• Resilience by design

Implications for Business Support Organisations (BSOs)

BSOs must evolve from traditional export promotion bodies into strategic enablers of trade readiness and resilience. This includes helping firms assess geopolitical and regulatory risk, build digital and AI capabilities, navigate sustainability requirements and identify regional opportunities.

In a low-growth environment, BSO impact should be measured not by export volumes alone, but by exporter resilience, sustainability and long-term capacity development. BSOs increasingly need to be seen (and evaluated) as long-term strategic partners rather than transactional service providers.

Implications for Policy Makers

Policy makers face a fundamentally different trade environment in 2026. Policy success will be measured less by headline trade growth and more by resilience, adaptability and competitiveness. This requires a shift from pure liberalisation towards strategic trade governance.

Key priorities include:

• Supporting SME participation by lowering compliance and entry costs
• Enabling digital and services trade through modernised regulatory frameworks
• Integrating sustainability into trade policy while maintaining competitiveness
• Strengthening supply chain resilience without resorting to protectionism
• Rethinking trade success metrics to include resilience, diversification and sustainability

Conclusion: A Future Defined by Adaptation

The biggest risk in global trade today is the inability to evolve from strategies designed for stability to models optimised for volatility.  It is clear that the disruptions of recent years are not temporary shocks but signals of a lasting structural shift in Global trade. A shift which will be shaped by slower growth, fragmentation and strategic innovation, where:

• Geopolitics shapes commercial policy
• Technology drives new trade models and efficiency
• Sustainability is embedded in competitiveness
• Resilience and agility replace predictability

Moving forward, success in global trade will depend less on volume growth and cost minimisation, and more on resilience, strategic alignment and the intelligent use of technology. Organisations that fail to adapt risk being structurally uncompetitive, regardless of size – agility will matter more than reach, sustainability will matter more than speed and strategy will matter more than scale.  For businesses, BSOs and policy makers alike, the ability to anticipate change, adapt quickly and embrace new ways of trading will define success in 2026.  Organisations still optimising for scale, lowest cost and maximum reach are preparing for a world that no longer exists. Those that act now will shape the next phase of global commerce and those that wait run the risk of being shaped by it.

If you have any questions about this article or would like to discuss how MSI may be able to help you navigate some of the issues raised, please do not hesitate to contact us.